Accuracy Assessment of the Predictor Algorithm
| Date | Temper ature |
Reported Toads |
Rain avg |
Predicted |
Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-27 | 54 | 0 | 1.98 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 2024-02-28 | 52 | 14 | 2.75 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2024-03-06 | 49 | 29 | 3.00 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2024-03-13 | 60 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 2024-03-14 | 65 | 33 | 1.00 | 27 | 18.18 |
| 2024-03-15 | 56 | 18 | 1.29 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2024-03-30 | 53 | 26 | 1.50 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2024-04-01 | 49 | 2 | 2.43 | 0 | 100.00 |
| 2024-04-09 | 65 | 413 | 1.00 | 27 | 93.46 |
| 2024-04-10 | 66 | 180 | 1.37 | 58 | 67.78 |
| 2024-04-11 | 63 | 254 | 2.50 | 290 | -14.17 |
| 2024-04-12 | 57 | 21 | 2.07 | 290 | -1280.95 |
| 2024-04-14 | 69 | 8 | 1.00 | 77 | -862.50 |
| 2024-04-15 | 70 | 4 | 1.41 | 131 | -3175.00 |
| 2024-04-16 | 66 | 1 | 1.00 | 40 | -3900.00 |
| 2024-04-17 | 56 | 28 | 1.65 | 260 | -828.57 |
| TotalDays | Reported | x | Predicted Total |
percent | |
| 16 | 1031 | 1200 | 62.50 |
The above table is filled out as we get data on how many toads were observed on each day we had volunteers report the toad counts.
Green if: (1) Within 30 toads
Green if: (2) Within 30%
Green if: (3) Actual and predicted toads >= 50
Red otherwise
These are some of the constants used in the formulas.
There can be more than one set when different sets are being evaluated.
| Static | Description | Value |
|---|---|---|
| carryOver | percent from previous if temperature doesn't fall | 50 |
| factorForAvgTemp | Skew avg temp faster when wetter | 0.5 |
| followOn | whether follow on is predicted | 1 |
| max_toads | Expected number of toads crossing to the reservoir | 1200 |
| min_avg | the minimum average temperature for a dry day pred | 50 |
| min_temp | The minimum temperature for dry prediction | 62 |
| momentum_deduction | Standard amount to delete from forecast | 10 |
| returnMax | number toads returning | 0 |
| returnRainThresh | rain threshold for wet return | 1.6 |
| returnTempThreshWet | returning temperature threshold wet | 58 |
| temp_scale | increase in toad prediction per degree | 8 |
| toad_basis_count_wet | Basic toad crossing prediction when it is very wet | 300 |
| toad_basis_count_wet_less | Basic toad crossing prediction when it is very wet | 100 |
| wet_rain_factor_thresh | Threshold for rain factor for wet crossings | 1.6 |
| wet_thresh_avg_temp | Threshold for movement; two day average temp | 48 |
| wet_thresh_current_temp | Threshold for movement; sunset temperature | 55 |
| wet_thresh_current_temp_less | Threshold for movement; sunset temperature | 53 |
| Weather Descript | Factor |
Upswing |
Downswing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chance Rain Showers | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Light Rain Likely | 2.75 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms | 2.50 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Rain Likely | 2.75 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Heavy Rain | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Rain Showers | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Rain Showers Likely | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Showers And Thunderstorms Likely | 2.50 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Showers And Thunderstorms | 2.75 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Slight Chance Light Rain | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Areas Of Drizzle | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Slight Chance Rain Showers | 1.25 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Chance Light Rain | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Isolated Rain Showers | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Chance Showers And Thunderstorms | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Light Rain | 2.75 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Rain | 3.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Cloudy | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Mostly Cloudy | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Partly Sunny | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Mostly Sunny | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Partly Cloudy | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Mostly Clear | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Clear | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Sunny | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Slight Chance Snow Showers | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Slight Chance Light Snow | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Chance Sleet | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Patchy Drizzle | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Patchy Fog | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |
| Areas Of Fog | 1.75 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Widespread Fog | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.98 |