Toad Detour Predictor Page for the Roxborough Reservoir

TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road

Info: Facebook

Basic information and gear list

Overhead view

Mini screen

Formulas info

Forward toad crossings predicted to be (mostly) complete on 2024-04-17. On this day Last day? and the days beyond All done? the forecast is cutoff arbitrarily because a certain number have been predicted for the season. This is just a guess. (There will still be toads returning to the woods from the reservoir.)

SummaryDate /
Time
Weather @ SundownMoon
Phase
Pred-
iction
No toads Sunday April 21st
7:47 PM
52 / Mostly Cloudy
Wind: 5 mph

Elev: 22
Illum: 0.4448
0 toads
No toads Monday April 22nd
7:48 PM
56 / Clear
Wind: 5 mph

Elev: 12
Illum: 0.2752
0 toads
No toads Tuesday April 23rd
7:49 PM
56 / Partly Cloudy
Wind: 15 mph

Elev: 1
Illum: 0
0 toads
A few toads Wednesday April 24th
7:50 PM
58 / Mostly Clear
Wind: 15 mph
No moon
35 toads
No toads Thursday April 25th
7:51 PM
54 / Mostly Clear
Wind: 10 mph
No moon
0 toads
No toads Friday April 26th
7:52 PM
57 / Partly Cloudy
Wind: 10 mph
No moon
0 toads
No toads Saturday April 27th
7:53 PM
xxx / xxx
Wind: 0 mph
No moon
0 toads

Click on an above date for forecast details. Forecast is how many American Toads a fully staffed detour night would count in the two hours after sunset.


The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.

Date Live
Toads
Dead
Toads
Live
Frogs
Dead
Frogs
2024-02-27 0 0 0 0
2024-02-28 14 8 3 2
2024-03-06 29 6 2 1
2024-03-13 0 0 0 0
2024-03-14 33 1 0 0
2024-03-15 18 1 1 1
2024-03-30 26 10 3 0
2024-04-01 2 0 0 0
2024-04-09 413 25 16 0
2024-04-10 180 10 2 0
2024-04-11 254 12 4 0
2024-04-12 21 2 2 0
2024-04-14 8 0 0 0
2024-04-15 4 0 0 0
2024-04-16 1 0 0 0
2024-04-17 28 1 0 0
TotalDays Live Toads Dead Toads Live Frogs Dead Frogs
16 1031 76 33 4

Live

Dead

Save Ratio

Toads10317693%
Frogs334
Summary  Main Page  Current Month  Pictures  Temperature Plot  Accuracy  Copyright (c) 2016 - 2024 hats4toads.com
1